CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z SUN 02/01 - 06Z MON 03/01 2005
ISSUED: 01/01 19:28Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

General thunderstorms are forecast across the North Sea and north-central Europe.

General thunderstorms are forecast across S of the Aegean Sea.

SYNOPSIS

Intense upper trough expected over the North Sea by Sunday 00Z is progged to lift NEWD across the Baltic States into Finland. Phasing downstream vort maxima are forecast to dig SEWD into the north-central Mediterranean and SE Europe during the period ... resulting in large-scale upper trough covering the eastern half of Europe by Monday morning. Extensive SFC low pressure system is FCST to persist over the Nordic Sea and Scandinavia ... with weakening occluded frontal system moving across E-central Europe ahead of the lifting trough during the day. Weak cyclogenesis is expected over the N Adriatic Sea ahead of vort max late in the period.

DISCUSSION

...SEE TEXT area...
Vort maxima at the W periphery of the upper trough are expected to overspread the North Sea and N-central Europe on Sunday ... signals in the vorticity-advection fileds are rather weak ... and it is questionable how much of a mesoscale organization of the convection will be achieved. There appears to be a slight threat for a few severe convective wind gusts and maybe a brief tornado given 0-1 km shear well in excess of 10 m/s. Threat should be too low for a categorical severe outlook.

...E Mediterranean...
A few TSTMS may occur in the first few hours of the period S of the Aegean Sea in association with departing upper trough. Severe TSTM threat should be low given rather weak CAPE/shear.

#